E-commerce sales in the US are on track to exceed 1.1 trillion US dollars in 2023, up by 7% over 2022. But this growth is set to be the weakest since the 2009 recession
According to Marketplace Pulse, based on the Department of Commerce data, in 2022, online sales in the US totalled 1 trillion US dollars and, this year, they are expected to grow by 7%, reaching 1.1 trillion US dollars. The e-commerce intelligence firm highlights that e-commerce spending remains higher than the pre-pandemic forecasts would have suggested. In fact, compared to a theoretical market where the pandemic didn’t happen and e-commerce grew at the rate it had grown for years before, today’s e-commerce is 14% above the trendline.
However, this will also be the weakest growth recorded since 2009, and, adjusting for inflation, the actual growth figure is even smaller. As a result, the step change brought about by the pandemic is being eaten up, which could mean that the trend line will catch up in a few years. It should also be noted that while the largest retailers, such as Amazon, Walmart or the Chinese Shein and Temu are outperforming, many smaller players in the market are likely to have experienced negative growth.
Nevertheless, Marketplace Pulse foresees that this year’s 7% growth may have reached its low point. Although its share of retail sales has been flat for three years, e-commerce continues to grow. For a decade, US online sales grew by around 14-15%, and from now on e-commerce will accelerate to the expected 9-10% growth.
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