美国对等关税的悬而未决，让越南纺织鞋服业像被卡住喉咙的跑者——一边冲刺，一边回头张望。The unresolved U.S. reciprocal tariffs have left Vietnam’s textile-footwear sector like a runner choking mid-sprint—pushing forward while nervously looking back.

延迟九十天的缓冲期带来短暂红利：订单回流、利润飙升；却也埋下隐忧：价格谈判卡壳、客户转单观望。The 90-day grace period delivered a fleeting windfall—orders returning, profits soaring—yet sowed fresh worries: stalled price talks and customers hesitating or diverting orders.

此刻的高增长更像一次透支，企业能否穿越下半年风暴，取决于它们在“不确定”中如何下注。Today’s rapid growth feels like an advance withdrawal; whether firms survive the coming storm hinges on how they bet amid uncertainty.

短暂春光：订单抢跑与利润爆发

据《先锋报》记者报道，越南国家纺织服装集团（Vinatex）董事会主席黎进祥表示：上半年合并营收破 9 000 亿越盾，同比增长 8%，利润翻近一倍。According to Tien Phong, Vinatex chairman Le Tien Truong said first-half consolidated revenue exceeded VND 9 trillion, up 8 percent year-on-year, while profit nearly doubled.

Thành Công、Sông Hồng 为赶在 7 月 5 日前交货，利润狂飙200%～300%。To ship before 5 July, Thành Công and Sông Hồng saw profits skyrocket by 200–300 percent.

这份繁荣来自企业压缩生产周期、透支产能换来的“提前兑现”。他也强调，尽管年初表现亮眼，但不能据此乐观预测下半年。Such prosperity came from shortening lead times and over-leveraging capacity—essentially “cashing in early.” Yet he stressed that stellar early-year results do not guarantee an easy second half.

行业普遍只接“够做就好”的订单，7—9 月排产被切成多个观察窗口：先生产，后谈价，随时停。谁也不愿在最终税率落地前押上全部筹码。Most factories now accept “just-enough” orders, slicing July-to-September output into checkpoints: produce first, price later, stop at any moment. No one dares wager everything before the final tariff is set.

与此同时，国内配套薄弱的问题被放大——逾六成面料依赖中国，“原产地熔断”风险潜藏，高利润其实站在脆弱基础之上。At the same time, weak domestic sourcing looms larger—over 60 percent of fabrics come from China. The risk of “origin cut-off” lurks, meaning today’s high margins rest on fragile ground.

暗流涌动：订单已逐渐减少

真正的考验在 10 月之后。The real test begins after October.

若美方关税仅再加 15%～20%，尚属可承受；一旦突破红线，外资或迁厂，订单或南移孟加拉甚至回流中国。If U.S. tariffs rise only 15–20 percent, firms can endure; cross that red line, and foreign investors may relocate, with orders shifting to Bangladesh or back to China.

和协纺织股份公司（Hòa Thọ）总经理阮玉平指出，在美国90天关税缓冲期内，公司一直在调整以满足客户新要求。Hoa Tho CEO Nguyen Ngoc Binh noted that during the 90-day window the company kept tweaking operations to meet new client demands.

对于7月10日后的订单，他坦言，过去一个月来自美国的8月及以后订单明显放缓，甚至部分客户暂停下单。主要原因是客户需重新评估采购、库存、消费情况及新关税政策影响。He admitted that U.S. orders for August and beyond have slowed sharply over the past month, with some clients halting purchases altogether, as they reassess procurement, inventory, demand, and tariff impacts.

有客户已削减订单量，或大幅压价，甚至涵盖CM与FOB模式。一些客户将订单转向孟加拉，或继续留在中国。但也有部分订单从中国转移至Hòa Thọ，集中在6、7月交货。目前该公司8月以后的美单大幅减少。Some buyers have cut volumes or slashed prices across CM and FOB models. Orders are moving to Bangladesh or staying in China, though a few shifted from China to Hoa Tho for June–July delivery. U.S. orders after August have fallen steeply.

“至于欧洲、日本市场，目前订单水平与2024年末相当。我们为这两个市场设立的专门工厂已接满单，业务团队正在加大这两个市场的开拓，既维护老客户也在找新客户。”他说。“As for Europe and Japan, order levels match late 2024. Our dedicated plants for these markets are full, and the sales team is deepening penetration, retaining old clients while hunting new ones,” he said.

南方纺织公司（VSC）总经理阮雄贵表示，目前VSC已接单至8月底，并已拓展欧洲、英国市场。这些地区在下半年订单比例已显著上升。VSC CEO Nguyen Hung Quy said the firm is booked through late August and has expanded in Europe and the UK, where order shares for the second half have risen markedly.

“虽然一些客户提出降价要求，但VSC暂不打算立即降价，还需观察市场进一步信号。”他认为，如果关税增加在15%~20%之间，对越南尚属可承受范围。此外，他建议对原产地认证制度需更加透明，特别是涉及中国原料的订单。“While some buyers request price cuts, VSC will wait for clearer signals before adjusting,” he added. An extra 15–20 percent tariff, he believes, remains bearable for Vietnam, but origin-certification—especially on Chinese materials—must become more transparent.

出口前景仍存

越南驻美商务处主任杜玉兴则指出，美国仍是越南服装、鞋类的重要出口市场。服装鞋类产业依赖重资产投入、重机械、劳动密集，建立完整供应链需时间。Du Ngoc Hung, head of Vietnam’s trade office in the U.S., noted that America is still a key market for Vietnamese apparel and footwear. These sectors are capital-intensive, equipment-heavy, and labor-intensive; building a full supply chain takes time.

美国虽有意通过关税复兴本土制造，但要在本土生产出一双完整鞋子，必须具备全套原料配套产业，这在现阶段极具挑战。Although Washington hopes tariffs will revive domestic manufacturing, producing an entire shoe at home requires a complete raw-material ecosystem—an immense challenge today.

相比之下，T恤、袜子等纺织品在其他国家仍更具成本优势。By contrast, textiles like T-shirts and socks remain more cost-effective in other nations.